The most populous nation must outdo GDP size of China and consolidate

India may be lagging behind China in terms of GDP size, but it has beaten the neighbour when it comes to population count. This trend is likely to continue into the future.

India, with a population of 1.42 billion has now surpassed China (1.4 billion) as the world’s largest country as of June-end, reveals the United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA) ‘State of World Population Report’.

Experts believe that while having a young working population could prove to be a huge advantage, significant challenges like providing quality healthcare, education and jobs remain.

Talking to Bizz Buzz, Prof Arun Kumar, former professor of Economics from JNU, says, “The prediction is correct. In fact, it was doing the

rounds for quite some time now. The country has already reached the level of 2.08 children per couple. It is the stage when population starts increasing.”

China’s population started declining due to the ‘one couple one child’ policy adopted by it.

However, the situation is different in India, which is passing through socio-economic transformation amid the belief that children are tools of social security, he says.

The phenomenon took place in Europe way back in the 1850s. After 1950, our death rate declined sharply, but the decline of population was considerably slower. But, from 1950s onwards, our rate of population started growing and slowed down from the 1990s. This trend was observed mostly in the Muslim community. As of now, the Muslim rate of growth and that of Hindus are almost equal in the country. India’s population will continue to rise until 2050, before it starts declining. We are below the replacement level at the moment. China’s population has started declining and India’s will start only after 25 years, he said.

India’s population will stabilise only after it touches the 1.62 billion mark. Ironically, China’s will fall to one billion by that time.

It is always blissful if we have a well-educated and healthy population. However, such positives are found wanting in India. The alarming unemployment rate is adding to the problems. Moreover, over 94 per cent of the workforce in the country is in the unorganised sector where productivity is pretty low. The situation would have been more heartening had such a situation prevailed in the highly productive organised sector.

The reality is that those with degrees like MBA, M.Tech are applying for menial jobs. Thus, they are not contributing towards the development of the nation.

In countries like India, poor people can’t afford to be sitting idle. So, they will have to work, no matter if it is not as per their qualification. This has led to under-employment. The commission on employment and under-employment, which he had chaired, mentioned in its report last year that 320 million people are in the unorganised sector, whereas 270 million people don’t have proper livelihood.

According to Prof Kumar, “We estimate that 240 million come for employment in the country every year. Ironically, a mere 0.5 per cent of them get proper employment.”

Demographic dividend will come only when we are able to give proper employment. Otherwise, there is every chance of a staring at a ‘demographic disaster’, he opined.

China has given good education to its children. Also, it has been taking proper healthcare.

As per ASER, annual status of education report, 50 per cent of children in rural schools studying in Standard V, can’t read even a Standard II book.

You have to create a massive number of employment opportunities. But, the problem is that the government is cutting budget allocation on education. This is helping only the organised sector. Even the PLI scheme, launched some time back, is only meant for big corporates.

Government must increase spending on education, health and employment generation. We must promote our macro sector. Agriculture contributes 47 per cent of the workforce but income of those in the sector is dismal. Government must give MSP to all the agricultural produces, he advised.

When it comes to China and India, the entire world watches the developments and happenings with visceral interest. Whether it is their politics, their economic race to the top or the societal philosophy that guides their public and private life, both nations appear poles apart. And while in this yank on which is the mightier of the two, the real muddle begins! The one common ground is population.

Dr Mona N Shah, founder and Director, Vayati Systems and Research, says, “For me, instead of focussing on the overtaking fact that was long in the offing, it is in how we view the statistics-Good, bad, or ugly? The only way to do a decent comparison is to know the geopolitical, economic, and social underpinnings of their respective societies.”

Geopolitically, both are civilisational powers, which dictate the respective state policy, and consider it an immutable superiority. The Chinese are materialistic, technology-driven and unabashedly

dominate. India, on the other hand, appears hesitant, but persistent influence with its ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ world view. To me this

appears like the proverbial ‘the hare and the tortoise’ dilemma, she added.

In the economic sphere, China caught up from behind with India in income per capita, overtaking it! China catapulted itself from an LDC to an upper middle- income country within 40 years. As per the purchasing power parity, China ranks next only to the USA with an economy of $33 trillion. India is a lower income country with 7.2 per cent share, of the global economy, at $3 trillion.

The dissimilarity in the two societies is stark, with the Chinese being led by Confucianism, aka materialism, the Indians by a metaphysical miasma. Chinese find this disdainful, and so are reluctant to accept Indians as equals. For India, protecting its democracy is more important, while it meanders through the development trails.

Renowned economist Meghnad Desai has rightly said, “Strong states can also be brittle states while soft states are difficult to smash and break since they are pliable.”

Therefore whether India outdoes China in the race for global domination across parameters…..Only time will tell.